Outlook for Markets after Considering Trump Agenda for Government, Immigration, & Trade
By Mitchell Anthony
March 11, 2025
Recession or Growth under Trump?
President Trump is a pro-growth leader and seeks policy that will help America grow and prosper. President Trump's agenda centers on economic growth as well as stability and growth in the financial markets and he would not stand by and let America’s wealth go into ruin by pushing a reckless agenda that push America into a needless recession, as the pessimists forecast. Trump is strong and wants to take on problems that no other leader has had the courage to embrace. However, Trump is unlikely to lose his vision for continued prosperity for Americans as he seeks to bring about substantial change. Trump has embarked on a path to make significant changes to Immigration, Trade, and Government (Americans “BIG 3” problems). These changes are intended to create growth and better opportunities for American business and consumers, as noted below. Certainly, there are some unknowns about the collateral damage that may occur as he pursues these agendas and he will need to keep his foot on the gas and the brake to steer the ship carefully over the next four years. Investors were not ready for such quick decisive action on the Big 3 and have sold stocks even though the environment ahead does not look like a problem for inflation, interest rates, or growth (the drivers of markets)! It would appear that Investors are being provoked into selling by reckless rhetoric from Trump haters who have gained a podium by the liberal Trump hating media. It would seem that if the markets continue on this path that they got on to two weeks ago Trump will quickly move to pause the press for change as his goal on the Big 3 will stand secondary to his goal of helping America build wealth.
Currently Nasdaq is off 12% and the SP500 is off 9% from its high achieved 3 weeks ago. MACM’s DG portfolios are also off about 10% from from highs of 2-3 weeks ago. With the SP500 and the MACM DG portfolio at all time highs just 3 weeks ago and now 10% lower one must wonder what has occurred? Obviously things did not change that much in 3 weeks leading us to believe that this is mostly an emotional selloff by investors who dislike Trump and others who don’t understand the need to address the BIG 3 problems facing America. We believe the current selling will end soon as pessimistic investors pause and wait for evidence that the feared problems are becoming reality. Currently the inflation/recession talk is only speculation.
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