Q2 2019 – Markets advanced with defensive leadership
July 21, 2019
Q2 2019 - Markets advanced with defensive leadership By Mitchell Anthony The US Economy continues to ebb and flow producing steady but below trend growth for several quarters. This trend seems likely to continue as the economic environment stays extremely stable with low inflation, friendly fed policy, and employment at all-time highs. The Current trends in the US economy show a mixed picture but generally improving economic fundamentals are visible. Read moreCorporate American Superstars
June 9, 2019
Corporate American Superstars By: Mitchel Anthony Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google (The FAANG) have been the pride of corporate America for many years and have been at the top of the list of most growth portfolios. Their innovation has changed the world and given America reason to be proud of what capitalism can produce. Every economic cycle has growth leaders but these great companies have set a standard that will be remembered for decades if not centuries to come. There are always doubters and those that believe the growth leaders in our economy are somehow cheating or taking advantage of consumers of their products. We have seen this talk in the past and undoubtedly will see it again. The political mess in Washington somehow believes that Facebook, Amazon, and Google should be broken up because they have become too big and powerful and as a result are stifling competition. This has investors concerned and their stock prices have waned as a result. Apple is suffering from a different type of political problem. They are caught up in the middle of a trade war that impacts prices for their products. As a result the growth outlook for the FAANG has clouds on the horizon.Read moreGLOBALIZATION AND THE TRADE WAR
June 4, 2019
The news flow over the last few weeks has centered on Trumps attempts to level the playing field with America’s adversaries and partners. This would include China, Mexico, and much of Europe. The game at play involves global trade and Trumps desire to better position America as a major exporter of goods and services to the emerging middle classes in China, India, and Asia. Investors are always worried about change and this game at play could put America back into a whole new cycle of amazing growth similar to the nifty 50s. Thus far we have seen more pessimism rather than optimism. As a result the markets have fallen 5 to 7% on this recent news flow. Synthesizing the right decisions out of these developments is our challenge as we try to stay ahead of where investors will go over the next year as they watch Trump do what he does best - negotiate and deal. Read moreDonald Trump Grows Confident On Re-election
May 14, 2019
Donald Trump surprised the markets and investors last week when he announced decisions to continue to aggressively battle China and seek significant gains in a trade agreement as his reelection year approaches quickly. Most investors believed that Trump was more concerned about the short-term gains for the economy than the long-term potential that would be derived from a trade agreement. As a result investors likely believed that Trump would back off the aggressive tone he had taken previously toward the Chinese and either sign a compromised agreement or allow this opportunity to pass. This obviously did not happen. Read moreEquity Markets Rebound
May 1, 2019
US equity markets rebounded at an amazing pace in the first quarter of 2019. Historically it has almost been unheard of for equity market corrections of 15% or more to be retraced at the same or better pace than what occurred during the fall. This is exactly what occurred in the first quarter of this year. This obviously has us thinking deeply about what was behind the selloff that occurred in the fourth quarter and whether it was in fact a manufactured correction by hedge funds seeking to make enormous amounts of money through a big short. We hypothesized in January of this year that the selloff in the fourth quarter was likely due to a big short put on by hedge funds and institutional investors and not likely due to fears from investors worried about a substantial change in the economic environment. This seems to be what primarily occurred. Now in hindsight there are some other observations that can be made and clearly more data is available about the economic conditions that were the headline news driving markets lower in Q4. Read more