US Stocks have regained their footing as predicted in our first quarter newsletter. We believed equities would get back on track after first-quarter earnings reports and economic data that we expected to be quite positive. This is exactly what happened in the second quarter. The leadership centered on domestic equities with NASDAQ and small cap stocks at the top of the list. Foreign markets tumbled as expectations for growth in the globe receded given the current environment for trade and impending tariffs. Emerging markets and China suffered the most with Europe closely behind in the freefall. This downturn came and pushed money into the US markets as the US economy stands strong in the trade war. In anticipation of this MACM exited all of its investments in emerging markets in Europe toward the end of Q1 and repositioned the portfolio in domestic equities leveraged to consumption themes present in America.Read more
2017 began with optimism from investors, consumers and businesses. The market’s great year began with a great first quarter followed steadily by similar gains in Q2 - Q4. Washington policy took a turn for the better despite unrest amongst the liberal socialists in our country. Trump’s first year was difficult for him and the nation as the country failed to unite; however, progress was made as Trump proved himself worthy of the job and did get one of his initiatives done! The tax cut was a great victory for business and had some modest benefits for most Americans as well. The obstruction to Trump's plans was unfortunate. It continues but shows signs of waning as liberal democrats are losing face, and possibly their will to continue, as meritless attacks failed to distract the White House agenda, but did wear on the American public’s tolerance for dishonesty from their leaders and the media.
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The American Economy continues to show signs of improvement and the growth picture has improved. As a result the equity markets have moved significantly in the first half of the fourth quarter. Economic results showing the health of the consumer, industrial sector, and globe have trended higher throughout Q4. This along with strong corporate earnings announcements since the end of Q3, have provided fuel for higher equity market prices. While many thought the leadership in the market was due for a change toward value, this has not occurred, and better earnings continue to drive the growth markets higher.Read more
Despite a flattening in consumer confidence in the US, growth in the American economy improved in the third quarter of 2017. GDP for the second quarter was revised upward from 2.2% to 3.1%. Corporate earnings accelerated in the third quarter for the S&P 500 to over 17%. Consumer confidence which hit a 17 year high in March 2017, has since eased back modestly. The change in trend for consumer confidence is difficult to quantify but it is likely due to politics in Washington and the country’s inability to come together since the election.Read more
The growth in the equity markets has been far greater than the growth in our economy since President Trump was elected. The S&P 500 logged another quarter of growth with the index advancing 3.1% in the quarter and advancing 9.3% year to date. MACM's dynamic growth portfolio also logged another good quarter of growth advancing 4.4% in the quarter and 13.5% year-to-date. This is not unusual as markets seem to perform the best during periods of slow growth with low inflation and friendly monetary policy. While this is true, we must note that the equity market rally paused in 2014 and 2015 when corporate America fell into an earnings recession and slow growth was replaced by no growth.Read more
Whether you look at financial market performance, consumer confidence, the purchasing manager survey, or unemployment data, it is clear that Trump has been great medicine for the globe’s economies and financial markets. The election of Donald Trump has brought higher confidence to consumers, investors, and unemployed Americans. The Trump effect has also played out in international economies. The globe is now in full expansion mode according to the latest purchasing manager index readings.Read more
2016 was a volatile year for the global economy and the world’s financial markets. The year began with the markets and the economy drowning in pessimism, but ended with consumer confidence at a 15 year high and the DJIA knocking on the door of 20,000. One might say that investors have blind optimism in pushing the DJIA to all-time highs given the fact that significant obstacles remain in the path of our economy. Mr. Trump is likely a big part of the reason for this optimism. His campaign identified and shouted from the mountaintop the problems that have handcuffed the globe’s economic superpower for the last decade.Read more
Industrial and Defense Stocks have led the Market to new highs as consumers and investors have embraced the post-election statements of Mr. Trump optimistically.
Mr. Trump’s poise and dignity, that seemed lacking throughout the campaign, has emerged, and as a result optimism as developed throughout America and the world. Financial markets have rallied globally. The Dow Jones industrial average broke 19,000 for the first time and most industrial based stock indices are at new highs. Contrarily growth indices have encountered fear-based obstacles and have lagged the industrial based leadership in the market. Since the election defense and aerospace, heavy construction, and bank stocks have led the market and have advanced double digits, despite virtually no confirmation from Wall Street analysts with higher revisions to earnings for these groups.Read more
The failures of our political leaders over the last decade ushered in an opening for Donald Trump to obtain the presidency. Trump cleverly realized this and seized on the opportunity. Trump’s campaign was full of rhetoric and promises seemingly made without true regard to what was achievable. Now that Trump has captured the presidency we will likely see an agenda laid out that is more realistic with what this country can afford and the Congress will accept.Read more
