Economic Expectations Bounce as Tariff Fears Ease – 2025 Q2 Review & Outlook
July 4, 2025
Economic Expectations Bounce as Tariff Fears Ease - 2025 Q2 Review & Outlook July 7, 2025 By Mitchell Anthony Overview Economic expectations had a wild ride thus far in 2025. Inflation expectations were off the chart during the first quarter as extreme proposals for controlling trade were implemented and talked about by the Trump administration. Ultimately after the first month or so of April it became clear that Trump’s proposals were mostly threats and unlikely to lead to the extreme problem for prices that were once considered back in January. The markets swooned in the first quarter as the media scared investors into selling shares despite Trumps rhetoric looking more like threats than reality. The rhetoric changed course significantly in the second quarter and financial markets began a steady recovery in April that finished in June with record highs for almost all growth oriented stock indices. MACM’s dynamic growth portfolio advanced by over 14% in the quarter followed by the S&P 500 gaining almost 11%. Securities that went down the most generally came back the most. There were some exceptions with some areas of healthcare developing problems that were not cured quickly. Volatility was high in the quarter. For example Nvidia fell from 142 to under 90 and then back to the160 area currently. This quarter’s performance proved the point that it is difficult trade markets and that investors generally do better than traders.Read moreTrump takes on the Global Trade Crisis with Tariffs that are Spooking Investors
April 5, 2025
Trump takes on the Global Trade Crisis with Tariffs that are Spooking Investors By Mitchell Anthony April 4, 2025 America continues to thrive despite an industrial sector that has been forced into decline by unfair Global trade policies. America’s success is under siege and we must take action to change! While globalization is great in a world with common goals. That has not materialized and the goals of America are not really aligned and shared by the rest of the Globe. America is and has been all about innovation and capitalism, while the rest of the world embraces socialism and communism at the expense of American wealth. This is now forcing America to reverse course from the globalistic path that we pursued in the 90’s. China is a huge threat to our freedom and our capitalistic success and we can no longer give away our wealth to socialistic countries and allow unfair Trade competition. Past leaders have been too weak to take on this fight. While Trump is a lot of puffed air and does not have good poise or dignity, it seems that he is the right medicine for what America needs today!! Read moreOutlook for Markets after Considering Trump Agenda for Government, Immigration, & Trade
March 10, 2025
Outlook for Markets after Considering Trump Agenda for Government, Immigration, & Trade By Mitchell Anthony March 11, 2025 Recession or Growth under Trump? President Trump is a pro-growth leader and seeks policy that will help America grow and prosper. President Trump's agenda centers on economic growth as well as stability and growth in the financial markets and he would not stand by and let America’s wealth go into ruin by pushing a reckless agenda that push America into a needless recession, as the pessimists forecast. Trump is strong and wants to take on problems that no other leader has had the courage to embrace. However, Trump is unlikely to lose his vision for continued prosperity for Americans as he seeks to bring about substantial change. Trump has embarked on a path to make significant changes to Immigration, Trade, and Government (Americans “BIG 3” problems). These changes are intended to create growth and better opportunities for American business and consumers, as noted below. Certainly, there are some unknowns about the collateral damage that may occur as he pursues these agendas and he will need to keep his foot on the gas and the brake to steer the ship carefully over the next four years. Investors were not ready for such quick decisive action on the Big 3 and have sold stocks even though the environment ahead does not look like a problem for inflation, interest rates, or growth (the drivers of markets)! It would appear that Investors are being provoked into selling by reckless rhetoric from Trump haters who have gained a podium by the liberal Trump hating media. It would seem that if the markets continue on this path that they got on to two weeks ago Trump will quickly move to pause the press for change as his goal on the Big 3 will stand secondary to his goal of helping America build wealth. Currently Nasdaq is off 12% and the SP500 is off 9% from its high achieved 3 weeks ago. MACM’s DG portfolios are also off about 10% from from highs of 2-3 weeks ago. With the SP500 and the MACM DG portfolio at all time highs just 3 weeks ago and now 10% lower one must wonder what has occurred? Obviously things did not change that much in 3 weeks leading us to believe that this is mostly an emotional selloff by investors who dislike Trump and others who don’t understand the need to address the BIG 3 problems facing America. We believe the current selling will end soon as pessimistic investors pause and wait for evidence that the feared problems are becoming reality. Currently the inflation/recession talk is only speculation. Read moreFinancial Markets Volatile as Rates Move up to 12 Month High
January 4, 2025
Financial Markets Volatile as Rates Move up to 12 Month High US Economy Performing Better than Expected with Select Group of Stocks moving Higher January 5, 2025 By Mitchell Anthony The US economy continues to surprise almost everyone! An economic slowdown or recession has been expected for the last two years but has not materialized. Employment has remained strong and retail sales and consumer confidence which had fallen off in early 2024 have begun to recover. The Fed had planned to lower rates much further but has seemingly made his last cut until further signs of economic weakness emerge. He is now not convinced that inflation is bottled up. (CPI Figure 3) The financial markets have been confused by the economy and the Fed which have both given us mixed signals on what lies ahead. Will inflation start to tilt back up again and put a clear end to the hope for lower rates? The Industrial side of the economy has been in recession for over a year and most industrial stocks have performed poorly as a result. The best performance in the equity market has come from large cap growth stocks which seem immune to the economic cycle and are driven more by secular consumption themes. This was clearly illustrated in the performance of stocks in the fourth quarter. The magnificent seven stocks were up over 15% while most value cyclical indices were down and had negative returns. (Figure 1) MACM’s dynamic growth portfolio was up over 5% for the quarter compared to only 2% for the S&P 500 and -2% for most large-cap value indices. The alpha created in Q4 by MACM was largely a result of heavy weightings in secular growth companies and mag seven stocks.Read moreDistressed Financial Assets Shine after Years of Poor Performance
October 5, 2024
Distressed Financial Assets Shine after Years of Poor Performance October 5, 2024 By Mitchell Anthony US Economy slows and market leadership takes a pause? Financial markets across the board performed well in the third quarter of 2024. Equities gained again after three straight quarters of solid returns. Fixed income which had not performed well for many quarters saw strong gains as interest rates fell significantly, and alternative investments like bitcoin had another good quarter as well. Opinions about the economy changed significantly from week to week throughout the quarter. Many strategists were expecting soft growth or recession to emerge however this was not the case and GDP came in much stronger than expected at 3% which is well above the trend it had been on for several years. These strategists were worried about a hard landing in the economy and that the Fed’s actions to tame inflation would ultimately bust this economic cycle. Seems as though they were wrong! The Inflation cycle for the most part ended and with it came lower interest rates across the board from short-term rates to longer-term mortgage rates. The decline in rates was as much as 50 basis points or one half of 1%. Investors hoping for rates to return to the near zero levels of the last decade rushed into bonds and ran prices up and yields down. This seemed to most seasoned investors to be a bit premature? Read more