Markets flat last week but MACM Portfolios Advance!

By Mitchell Anthony

September 7th, 2021

 

We had another solid week for MACM portfolios last week. MACM’s dynamic growth portfolio (DG) advanced 0.72% compared to flat returns (0.18%) for the S&P 500.  Recent additions to the portfolio continued for the second straight week to lead the advance with China (CHIQ) returning 2.5% last week.  The FAANG stocks which are heavy in our DG portfolio, had another week of gains advancing approximately 1.10% in total.  FB -1.16%, AMZN +1.65%, AAPL +0.77%, NFLX +4.3%, GOOGL -0.59%.  Investors weighed the corporate news flow and economic reports  and found no compelling reasons to favor Value or Growth with both arena’s up modestly for the week.  We likewise were quiet last week with no major changes to the portfolio based upon news flow.  Large Cap growth IWF +0.33% and Large Cap Value IWD + 0.20%.  The Tech Heavy Nasdaq QQQ advanced 0.34%.

On the economic front most of the news pointed toward moderating economic growth. The manufacturing sector reported strong orders with the ISM report coming in at 59.9. Any reading over 50 indicates expansion. Factory orders were also up a bit more than estimated and durable goods orders appear to be stable despite a steady decline from the massive orders we had last year and into the first quarter of this year.  The unemployment rate met expectations at 5.2% but still far from the Fed’s target of 3 to 4% indicating an economy that is not booming and still struggling from government stimulus that motivates people to stay at home. The number of new jobs created was far off what was expected by over 500,000. Consumer confidence also fell substantially from the 123 level of last month to 113 currently. This is undoubtedly due to the reemergence of the third wave of the virus.

LAST WEEKS’S ECONOMIC NEWS FLOW

  • Consumer Confidence big miss (123 expected and 113 actual)
  • Non Farm Payroll massive miss (733k expected jobs vs 235k actual)
  • Unemployment Rate met expectations coming at 5.2%
  • Manufacturing ISM Report 59.9 actual vs estimate of 58.5
  • Factory orders – up .4% actual vs .3% estimate.

The central bank was quiet with no news formally or informally from any of the Fed governors. Investors continue to believe that the taper will begin no sooner than the end of this year, with no planned increases in rates on the horizon. The 10 year treasury has been range bound between 1.2% and 1.4% over the last several months and is at the high end of that range currently (1.37%).

A lack of news from China on regulation was welcomed by investors and China rallied nicely for the week.

THIS WEEKS’ ECONOMIC REPORTS

This week’s economic calendar is relatively clear with only a few meaningful data points scheduled to be released. On Thursday we get initial jobless claims with current estimates for 2.7 million. PPI is expected Friday with current estimates looking for a 0.6% month over month advance and an 8.2% year-over-year advance.  While these numbers are high they continue to reflect the recovery in prices that occurred because of Covid that is likely transitory and is already softening in many areas.